Harry Potter 6 Fails to Beat Transformers 2 in States

Despite a huge advertising blitz, Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince failed to catch Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen in first five nor first weekend of release in the US based on early estimates. HP6 weekend is first weekend is looking to be around $79 million bringing its five day total to $159 million. Transformers 2 first weekend was $108.9 million, five day was near record breaking $200.1 million.

Having said that, the numbers are not in for the international gross which is important as the film is likely to do very well overseas. Where TF2's totals are split evenly between US and international sales, the Harry Potter series traditionally does 3 times as well overseas. That proportion resulted in Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix to earn a worldwide gross of $938.2 million, 68.9% of that total from overseas sales. If that pattern holds then the five day international totals could be as high as $230 bringing the worldwide gross to $389.7 million, easily surpassing Transformers 2's $366.2 million.

The net result of all this estimated number crunching (assuming they closely match Monday's actuals) is it is pretty much a lock that Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen will remain the top movie of the year in the States but Harry Potter 6 will be the top movie in worldwide totals and could possibly become only the fifth movie in the world to pass the billion dollar mark (not adjusting for inflation). Just something to keep in mind if planning on any "I told you so" fun with friends.

Box Office Totals (in millions)

Date	US	Intl	Worldwide
6/19-6/23	$0.0	$24.1	$24.1
6/24-6/28	$200.2	$166.2	$366.4
6/29-7/02	$50.9	$52.7	$103.6
7/03-7/05	$42.3	$55.0	$97.3
7/06-7/09	$21.6	$35.1	$56.7
7/10-7/12	$24.2	$31.4	$55.6
7/13-7/16	$10.9	$18.6	$29.5
7/17-7/19	$13.7*
Totals	$363.8	$383.1	$746.8

*estimate of sales